Weniger hormonersatztherapie, weniger brustkrebs in Deutschland?

Purpose: The use of hormone replacement therapy (HRT), a known risk factor for the development of breast cancer, has decreased substantially over the last years in the general population, both within Germany and globally. A recent publication from the USA reported a 6.7% decrease in the incidence of breast cancer. The aim of this study was an analysis of current trends in Germany. Material and Methods: The incidence of breast cancer in Germany up until the year 2005 was analyzed using the population-based cancer registers of two federal states: the Saarland (SA) and Schleswig-Holstein (SH). Data on the use of HRT was extracted from a cohort of more than 100000 women who participated in a project on breast cancer diagnostics with quality assurance in the years 2001-2006 in SH. Results: Between 2003 and 2005, the incidence of breast cancer declined in both federal states by 9.5 and 14.3 %, respectively. The strongest decline was seen in the age group between 50 and 69 years, where the decline in both federal states was 19%. The use of HRT began to decline two years before the beginning of the decline in the incidence in breast cancer. In the state of Schleswig-Holstein HRT use declined from 44.9% in 2001 to 14.6% in 2006. Conclusion: On the basis of the present evidence on HRT use and breast cancer incidence, a rapid decline in the incidence of breast cancer is very likely. If this trend is confirmed for the whole of Germany, a decline of (only) 10% would mean approximately 5500 fewer cases of breast cancer per year.