TY - JOUR
T1 - Using Administrative Data to Assess the Risk of Permanent Work Disability: A Cohort Study
AU - Bethge, Matthias
AU - Spanier, Katja
AU - Streibelt, Marco
N1 - Funding Information:
This research was funded by the Federal German Pension Insurance. Funding was provided by Deutsche Rentenversicherung Bund (DE) (Grant No. FV-1253-18-0156-01). Open Access funding provided by Projekt DEAL.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2020, The Author(s).
Copyright:
Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2020/9/10
Y1 - 2020/9/10
N2 - Purpose Unmet rehabilitation needs are common. We therefore developed a risk score using administrative data to assess the risk of permanent work disability. Such a score may support the identification of individuals with a high likelihood of receiving a disability pension. Methods Our sample was a random and stratified 1% sample of individuals aged 18–65 years paying pension contributions. From administrative records, we extracted sociodemographic data and data about employment and welfare benefits covering 2010–2012. Our outcome was a pension due to work disability that was requested between January 2013 and December 2017. We developed a comprehensive logistic regression model and used the model estimates to determine the risk score. Results We included 352,140 individuals and counted 6,360 (1.8%) disability pensions during the 5-year follow-up. The area under the receiver operating curve was 0.839 (95% CI 0.834 to 0.844) for the continuous risk score. Using a threshold of ≥ 50 points (20.2% of all individuals), we correctly classified 80.6% of all individuals (sensitivity: 71.5%; specificity: 80.8%). Using ≥ 60 points (9.9% of all individuals), we correctly classified 90.3% (sensitivity: 54.9%; specificity: 91.0%). Individuals with 50 to <60 points had a five times higher risk of a disability pension compared to individuals with low scores, individuals with ≥ 60 points a 17 times higher risk. Conclusions The risk score offers an opportunity to screen for people with a high risk of permanent work disability.
AB - Purpose Unmet rehabilitation needs are common. We therefore developed a risk score using administrative data to assess the risk of permanent work disability. Such a score may support the identification of individuals with a high likelihood of receiving a disability pension. Methods Our sample was a random and stratified 1% sample of individuals aged 18–65 years paying pension contributions. From administrative records, we extracted sociodemographic data and data about employment and welfare benefits covering 2010–2012. Our outcome was a pension due to work disability that was requested between January 2013 and December 2017. We developed a comprehensive logistic regression model and used the model estimates to determine the risk score. Results We included 352,140 individuals and counted 6,360 (1.8%) disability pensions during the 5-year follow-up. The area under the receiver operating curve was 0.839 (95% CI 0.834 to 0.844) for the continuous risk score. Using a threshold of ≥ 50 points (20.2% of all individuals), we correctly classified 80.6% of all individuals (sensitivity: 71.5%; specificity: 80.8%). Using ≥ 60 points (9.9% of all individuals), we correctly classified 90.3% (sensitivity: 54.9%; specificity: 91.0%). Individuals with 50 to <60 points had a five times higher risk of a disability pension compared to individuals with low scores, individuals with ≥ 60 points a 17 times higher risk. Conclusions The risk score offers an opportunity to screen for people with a high risk of permanent work disability.
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UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/92f205f5-9a09-3ae5-afa0-f6d70fe0427a/
U2 - 10.1007/s10926-020-09926-7
DO - 10.1007/s10926-020-09926-7
M3 - Journal articles
AN - SCOPUS:85090601545
JO - Journal of Occupational Rehabilitation
JF - Journal of Occupational Rehabilitation
SN - 1053-0487
ER -