Multicenter external validation of the liverpool uveal melanoma prognosticator online: An OOG collaborative study

Alda Cunha Rola; Azzam Taktak; Antonio Eleuteri; Helen Kalirai; Heinrich Heimann; Rumana Hussain; Laura J. Bonnett; Christopher J. Hill; Matthew Traynor; Martine J. Jager; Marina Marinkovic; Gregorius P.M. Luyten; Mehmet Dogrusöz; Emine Kilic; Annelies de Klein; Kyra Smit; Natasha M. van Poppelen; Bertil E. Damato; Armin Afshar; Rudolf F. Guthoff; Björn O. Scheef; Vinodh Kakkassery; Svetlana Saakyan; Alexander Tsygankov; Carlo Mosci; Paolo Ligorio; Silvia Viaggi; Claudia H.D. Le Guin; Norbert Bornfeld; Nikolaos E. Bechrakis; Sarah E. Coupland

doi:10.3390/cancers12020477

Multicenter external validation of the liverpool uveal melanoma prognosticator online: An OOG collaborative study

Alda Cunha Rola^*, Azzam Taktak, Antonio Eleuteri, Helen Kalirai, Heinrich Heimann, Rumana Hussain, Laura J. Bonnett, Christopher J. Hill, Matthew Traynor, Martine J. Jager, Marina Marinkovic, Gregorius P.M. Luyten, Mehmet Dogrusöz, Emine Kilic, Annelies de Klein, Kyra Smit, Natasha M. van Poppelen, Bertil E. Damato, Armin Afshar, Rudolf F. GuthoffBjörn O. Scheef, Vinodh Kakkassery, Svetlana Saakyan, Alexander Tsygankov, Carlo Mosci, Paolo Ligorio, Silvia Viaggi, Claudia H.D. Le Guin, Norbert Bornfeld, Nikolaos E. Bechrakis, Sarah E. Coupland

^*Corresponding author for this work

Clinic of Ophtalmology

55 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Uveal melanoma (UM) is fatal in ~50% of patients as a result of disseminated disease. This study aims to externally validate the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online V3 (LUMPO3) to determine its reliability in predicting survival after treatment for choroidal melanoma when utilizing external data from other ocular oncology centers. Anonymized data of 1836 UM patients from seven international ocular oncology centers were analyzed with LUMPO3 to predict the 10-year survival for each patient in each external dataset. The analysts were masked to the patient outcomes. Model predictions were sent to an independent statistician to evaluate LUMPO3’s performance using discrimination and calibration methods. LUMPO3’s ability to discriminate between UM patients who died of metastatic UM and those who were still alive was fair-to-good, with C-statistics ranging from 0.64 to 0.85 at year 1. The pooled estimate for all external centers was 0.72 (95% confidence interval: 0.68 to 0.75). Agreement between observed and predicted survival probabilities was generally good given differences in case mix and survival rates between different centers. Despite the differences between the international cohorts of patients with primary UM, LUMPO3 is a valuable tool for predicting all-cause mortality in this disease when using data from external centers.

Original language	English
Article number	477
Journal	Cancers
Volume	12
Issue number	2
ISSN	2072-6694
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.3390/cancers12020477
Publication status	Published - 02.2020

Funding

Funding: This research received no external funding. Alda Cunha Rola (Ophthalmologist) is undertaking a PhD with LOORG (www.loorg.org), and this studentship is sponsored by the National Institute of Scholarship Management (INAGBE-Angola).

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being
SDG 9 Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure

Research Areas and Centers

Research Area: Luebeck Integrated Oncology Network (LION)

Access to Document

10.3390/cancers12020477

Cite this

Rola, A. C., Taktak, A., Eleuteri, A., Kalirai, H., Heimann, H., Hussain, R., Bonnett, L. J., Hill, C. J., Traynor, M., Jager, M. J., Marinkovic, M., Luyten, G. P. M., Dogrusöz, M., Kilic, E., de Klein, A., Smit, K., van Poppelen, N. M., Damato, B. E., Afshar, A., ... Coupland, S. E. (2020). Multicenter external validation of the liverpool uveal melanoma prognosticator online: An OOG collaborative study. Cancers, 12(2), Article 477. https://doi.org/10.3390/cancers12020477

@article{1a6d426295a24e5aa2eafcf9a16eabc8,

title = "Multicenter external validation of the liverpool uveal melanoma prognosticator online: An OOG collaborative study",

abstract = "Uveal melanoma (UM) is fatal in \textasciitilde{}50\% of patients as a result of disseminated disease. This study aims to externally validate the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online V3 (LUMPO3) to determine its reliability in predicting survival after treatment for choroidal melanoma when utilizing external data from other ocular oncology centers. Anonymized data of 1836 UM patients from seven international ocular oncology centers were analyzed with LUMPO3 to predict the 10-year survival for each patient in each external dataset. The analysts were masked to the patient outcomes. Model predictions were sent to an independent statistician to evaluate LUMPO3{\textquoteright}s performance using discrimination and calibration methods. LUMPO3{\textquoteright}s ability to discriminate between UM patients who died of metastatic UM and those who were still alive was fair-to-good, with C-statistics ranging from 0.64 to 0.85 at year 1. The pooled estimate for all external centers was 0.72 (95\% confidence interval: 0.68 to 0.75). Agreement between observed and predicted survival probabilities was generally good given differences in case mix and survival rates between different centers. Despite the differences between the international cohorts of patients with primary UM, LUMPO3 is a valuable tool for predicting all-cause mortality in this disease when using data from external centers.",

author = "Rola, \{Alda Cunha\} and Azzam Taktak and Antonio Eleuteri and Helen Kalirai and Heinrich Heimann and Rumana Hussain and Bonnett, \{Laura J.\} and Hill, \{Christopher J.\} and Matthew Traynor and Jager, \{Martine J.\} and Marina Marinkovic and Luyten, \{Gregorius P.M.\} and Mehmet Dogrus{\"o}z and Emine Kilic and \{de Klein\}, Annelies and Kyra Smit and \{van Poppelen\}, \{Natasha M.\} and Damato, \{Bertil E.\} and Armin Afshar and Guthoff, \{Rudolf F.\} and Scheef, \{Bj{\"o}rn O.\} and Vinodh Kakkassery and Svetlana Saakyan and Alexander Tsygankov and Carlo Mosci and Paolo Ligorio and Silvia Viaggi and \{Le Guin\}, \{Claudia H.D.\} and Norbert Bornfeld and Bechrakis, \{Nikolaos E.\} and Coupland, \{Sarah E.\}",

note = "Funding Information: Funding: This research received no external funding. Alda Cunha Rola (Ophthalmologist) is undertaking a PhD with LOORG (www.loorg.org), and this studentship is sponsored by the National Institute of Scholarship Management (INAGBE-Angola). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. Copyright: Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.",

year = "2020",

month = feb,

doi = "10.3390/cancers12020477",

language = "English",

volume = "12",

journal = "Cancers",

issn = "2072-6694",

number = "2",

}

Rola, AC, Taktak, A, Eleuteri, A, Kalirai, H, Heimann, H, Hussain, R, Bonnett, LJ, Hill, CJ, Traynor, M, Jager, MJ, Marinkovic, M, Luyten, GPM, Dogrusöz, M, Kilic, E, de Klein, A, Smit, K, van Poppelen, NM, Damato, BE, Afshar, A, Guthoff, RF, Scheef, BO, Kakkassery, V, Saakyan, S, Tsygankov, A, Mosci, C, Ligorio, P, Viaggi, S, Le Guin, CHD, Bornfeld, N, Bechrakis, NE & Coupland, SE 2020, 'Multicenter external validation of the liverpool uveal melanoma prognosticator online: An OOG collaborative study', Cancers, vol. 12, no. 2, 477. https://doi.org/10.3390/cancers12020477

TY - JOUR

T1 - Multicenter external validation of the liverpool uveal melanoma prognosticator online: An OOG collaborative study

AU - Rola, Alda Cunha

AU - Taktak, Azzam

AU - Eleuteri, Antonio

AU - Kalirai, Helen

AU - Heimann, Heinrich

AU - Hussain, Rumana

AU - Bonnett, Laura J.

AU - Hill, Christopher J.

AU - Traynor, Matthew

AU - Jager, Martine J.

AU - Marinkovic, Marina

AU - Luyten, Gregorius P.M.

AU - Dogrusöz, Mehmet

AU - Kilic, Emine

AU - de Klein, Annelies

AU - Smit, Kyra

AU - van Poppelen, Natasha M.

AU - Damato, Bertil E.

AU - Afshar, Armin

AU - Guthoff, Rudolf F.

AU - Scheef, Björn O.

AU - Kakkassery, Vinodh

AU - Saakyan, Svetlana

AU - Tsygankov, Alexander

AU - Mosci, Carlo

AU - Ligorio, Paolo

AU - Viaggi, Silvia

AU - Le Guin, Claudia H.D.

AU - Bornfeld, Norbert

AU - Bechrakis, Nikolaos E.

AU - Coupland, Sarah E.

N1 - Funding Information: Funding: This research received no external funding. Alda Cunha Rola (Ophthalmologist) is undertaking a PhD with LOORG (www.loorg.org), and this studentship is sponsored by the National Institute of Scholarship Management (INAGBE-Angola). Publisher Copyright: © 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. Copyright: Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

PY - 2020/2

Y1 - 2020/2

N2 - Uveal melanoma (UM) is fatal in ~50% of patients as a result of disseminated disease. This study aims to externally validate the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online V3 (LUMPO3) to determine its reliability in predicting survival after treatment for choroidal melanoma when utilizing external data from other ocular oncology centers. Anonymized data of 1836 UM patients from seven international ocular oncology centers were analyzed with LUMPO3 to predict the 10-year survival for each patient in each external dataset. The analysts were masked to the patient outcomes. Model predictions were sent to an independent statistician to evaluate LUMPO3’s performance using discrimination and calibration methods. LUMPO3’s ability to discriminate between UM patients who died of metastatic UM and those who were still alive was fair-to-good, with C-statistics ranging from 0.64 to 0.85 at year 1. The pooled estimate for all external centers was 0.72 (95% confidence interval: 0.68 to 0.75). Agreement between observed and predicted survival probabilities was generally good given differences in case mix and survival rates between different centers. Despite the differences between the international cohorts of patients with primary UM, LUMPO3 is a valuable tool for predicting all-cause mortality in this disease when using data from external centers.

AB - Uveal melanoma (UM) is fatal in ~50% of patients as a result of disseminated disease. This study aims to externally validate the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online V3 (LUMPO3) to determine its reliability in predicting survival after treatment for choroidal melanoma when utilizing external data from other ocular oncology centers. Anonymized data of 1836 UM patients from seven international ocular oncology centers were analyzed with LUMPO3 to predict the 10-year survival for each patient in each external dataset. The analysts were masked to the patient outcomes. Model predictions were sent to an independent statistician to evaluate LUMPO3’s performance using discrimination and calibration methods. LUMPO3’s ability to discriminate between UM patients who died of metastatic UM and those who were still alive was fair-to-good, with C-statistics ranging from 0.64 to 0.85 at year 1. The pooled estimate for all external centers was 0.72 (95% confidence interval: 0.68 to 0.75). Agreement between observed and predicted survival probabilities was generally good given differences in case mix and survival rates between different centers. Despite the differences between the international cohorts of patients with primary UM, LUMPO3 is a valuable tool for predicting all-cause mortality in this disease when using data from external centers.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85079699020

U2 - 10.3390/cancers12020477

DO - 10.3390/cancers12020477

M3 - Journal articles

AN - SCOPUS:85079699020

SN - 2072-6694

VL - 12

JO - Cancers

JF - Cancers

IS - 2

M1 - 477

ER -

Multicenter external validation of the liverpool uveal melanoma prognosticator online: An OOG collaborative study

Abstract

Funding

UN SDGs

Research Areas and Centers

Access to Document

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