TY - JOUR
T1 - Multicenter external validation of the liverpool uveal melanoma prognosticator online: An OOG collaborative study
AU - Rola, Alda Cunha
AU - Taktak, Azzam
AU - Eleuteri, Antonio
AU - Kalirai, Helen
AU - Heimann, Heinrich
AU - Hussain, Rumana
AU - Bonnett, Laura J.
AU - Hill, Christopher J.
AU - Traynor, Matthew
AU - Jager, Martine J.
AU - Marinkovic, Marina
AU - Luyten, Gregorius P.M.
AU - Dogrusöz, Mehmet
AU - Kilic, Emine
AU - de Klein, Annelies
AU - Smit, Kyra
AU - van Poppelen, Natasha M.
AU - Damato, Bertil E.
AU - Afshar, Armin
AU - Guthoff, Rudolf F.
AU - Scheef, Björn O.
AU - Kakkassery, Vinodh
AU - Saakyan, Svetlana
AU - Tsygankov, Alexander
AU - Mosci, Carlo
AU - Ligorio, Paolo
AU - Viaggi, Silvia
AU - Le Guin, Claudia H.D.
AU - Bornfeld, Norbert
AU - Bechrakis, Nikolaos E.
AU - Coupland, Sarah E.
N1 - Funding Information:
Funding: This research received no external funding. Alda Cunha Rola (Ophthalmologist) is undertaking a PhD with LOORG (www.loorg.org), and this studentship is sponsored by the National Institute of Scholarship Management (INAGBE-Angola).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
Copyright:
Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2020/2
Y1 - 2020/2
N2 - Uveal melanoma (UM) is fatal in ~50% of patients as a result of disseminated disease. This study aims to externally validate the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online V3 (LUMPO3) to determine its reliability in predicting survival after treatment for choroidal melanoma when utilizing external data from other ocular oncology centers. Anonymized data of 1836 UM patients from seven international ocular oncology centers were analyzed with LUMPO3 to predict the 10-year survival for each patient in each external dataset. The analysts were masked to the patient outcomes. Model predictions were sent to an independent statistician to evaluate LUMPO3’s performance using discrimination and calibration methods. LUMPO3’s ability to discriminate between UM patients who died of metastatic UM and those who were still alive was fair-to-good, with C-statistics ranging from 0.64 to 0.85 at year 1. The pooled estimate for all external centers was 0.72 (95% confidence interval: 0.68 to 0.75). Agreement between observed and predicted survival probabilities was generally good given differences in case mix and survival rates between different centers. Despite the differences between the international cohorts of patients with primary UM, LUMPO3 is a valuable tool for predicting all-cause mortality in this disease when using data from external centers.
AB - Uveal melanoma (UM) is fatal in ~50% of patients as a result of disseminated disease. This study aims to externally validate the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online V3 (LUMPO3) to determine its reliability in predicting survival after treatment for choroidal melanoma when utilizing external data from other ocular oncology centers. Anonymized data of 1836 UM patients from seven international ocular oncology centers were analyzed with LUMPO3 to predict the 10-year survival for each patient in each external dataset. The analysts were masked to the patient outcomes. Model predictions were sent to an independent statistician to evaluate LUMPO3’s performance using discrimination and calibration methods. LUMPO3’s ability to discriminate between UM patients who died of metastatic UM and those who were still alive was fair-to-good, with C-statistics ranging from 0.64 to 0.85 at year 1. The pooled estimate for all external centers was 0.72 (95% confidence interval: 0.68 to 0.75). Agreement between observed and predicted survival probabilities was generally good given differences in case mix and survival rates between different centers. Despite the differences between the international cohorts of patients with primary UM, LUMPO3 is a valuable tool for predicting all-cause mortality in this disease when using data from external centers.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85079699020&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3390/cancers12020477
DO - 10.3390/cancers12020477
M3 - Journal articles
AN - SCOPUS:85079699020
SN - 2072-6694
VL - 12
JO - Cancers
JF - Cancers
IS - 2
M1 - 477
ER -
