Multicenter external validation of the liverpool uveal melanoma prognosticator online: An OOG collaborative study

Alda Cunha Rola*, Azzam Taktak, Antonio Eleuteri, Helen Kalirai, Heinrich Heimann, Rumana Hussain, Laura J. Bonnett, Christopher J. Hill, Matthew Traynor, Martine J. Jager, Marina Marinkovic, Gregorius P.M. Luyten, Mehmet Dogrusöz, Emine Kilic, Annelies de Klein, Kyra Smit, Natasha M. van Poppelen, Bertil E. Damato, Armin Afshar, Rudolf F. GuthoffBjörn O. Scheef, Vinodh Kakkassery, Svetlana Saakyan, Alexander Tsygankov, Carlo Mosci, Paolo Ligorio, Silvia Viaggi, Claudia H.D. Le Guin, Norbert Bornfeld, Nikolaos E. Bechrakis, Sarah E. Coupland

*Corresponding author for this work
11 Citations (Scopus)


Uveal melanoma (UM) is fatal in ~50% of patients as a result of disseminated disease. This study aims to externally validate the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online V3 (LUMPO3) to determine its reliability in predicting survival after treatment for choroidal melanoma when utilizing external data from other ocular oncology centers. Anonymized data of 1836 UM patients from seven international ocular oncology centers were analyzed with LUMPO3 to predict the 10-year survival for each patient in each external dataset. The analysts were masked to the patient outcomes. Model predictions were sent to an independent statistician to evaluate LUMPO3’s performance using discrimination and calibration methods. LUMPO3’s ability to discriminate between UM patients who died of metastatic UM and those who were still alive was fair-to-good, with C-statistics ranging from 0.64 to 0.85 at year 1. The pooled estimate for all external centers was 0.72 (95% confidence interval: 0.68 to 0.75). Agreement between observed and predicted survival probabilities was generally good given differences in case mix and survival rates between different centers. Despite the differences between the international cohorts of patients with primary UM, LUMPO3 is a valuable tool for predicting all-cause mortality in this disease when using data from external centers.

Original languageEnglish
Article number477
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - 02.2020

Research Areas and Centers

  • Research Area: Luebeck Integrated Oncology Network (LION)


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