Identifying change-dropout patterns during an Internet-based intervention for depression by applying the Muthen-Roy model

To date, only few studies have attempted to investigate non-ignorable dropout during Internet-based interventions by applying an NMAR model, which includes missing data indicators in its equations. Here, the Muthen-Roy model was used to investigate change and dropout patterns in a sample of patients with mild-to-moderate depression symptoms (N = 483) who were randomized to a 12-week Internet-based intervention (deprexis, identifier: NCT01636752). Participants completed the PHQ-9 biweekly during the treatment. We identified four change-dropout patterns: Participants showing high impairment, improvement and low dropout probability (C3, N = 134) had the highest rate of reliable change at 6- and 12-month follow-up. A further pattern was characterized by high impairment, deterioration and high dropout probability (C2, N = 32), another by low impairment, improvement and high dropout probability (C1, N = 198). The last pattern was characterized by high impairment, no change and low dropout probability (C4, N = 119). In addition to deterioration, also rapid improvement may lead to dropout as a result of a perceived “good enough” dosage of treatment. This knowledge may strengthen sensitivity for the mechanisms of dropout and help to consider its meaning in efforts to optimize treatment selection.