Evaluation of Probabilities and Brain Activity - An EEG-Study

Ralf Morgenstern*, Marcus Heldmann, Thomas Münte, Bodo Vogt

*Corresponding author for this work


This paper focuses on the problem of probability weighting in the evaluation of lotteries. According to Prospect Theory a probability of 0.5 has a weight of smaller than 0.5. We conduct an EEG experiment in which we compare the results of the evaluation of binary lotteries by certainty equivalents with the results of the bisection method. The bisection method gives the amount of money that corresponds to the midpoint of the utilities of the two payoffs in a binary lottery as it has been shown previously. In this method probabilities are not evaluated. We analyzed EEG data focused on whether a probability is evaluated or not. Our data show differences between the two methods connected with the attention towards sure monetary payoffs, but they do not show brain activity connected with a devaluation of the probability of 0.5.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationBI 2009: Brain Informatics
EditorsNing Zhong, Kuncheng Li, Shengfu Lu, Lin Chen
Number of pages10
Volume5819 LNAI
PublisherSpringer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
Publication date2009
ISBN (Print)978-3-642-04953-8
ISBN (Electronic)978-3-642-04954-5
Publication statusPublished - 2009
Event2009 1st International Conference on Brain Informatics - Beijing, China
Duration: 22.10.200924.10.2009
Conference number: 83270

Research Areas and Centers

  • Academic Focus: Center for Brain, Behavior and Metabolism (CBBM)


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