Die kartografische Darstellung regionaler Unterschiede in der Morbidität: Möglichkeiten der Datenanalyse am Beispiel des kleinräumigen Krebsatlasses Schleswig-Holstein

The cancer registry in Germany collects area-wide small-area data that can be presented in themes (disease mapping). Because of the occurrence of random extreme values of rates, mapping without prior spatial-statistical data analysis is problematic from a methodological and risk-communicative viewpoint – the extreme values easily mislead the card reader and obscure actual spatial patterns. The problem of data instability can generally be met by aggregation or by smoothing. The cancer atlas for Schleswig-Holstein is based on data from 1142 municipalities (median population: 721) for the diagnostic years 2001–2010. Maps for incidence (as a standardized incidence ratio), mortality (as a standardized mortality ratio), and relative survival (as a relative excess risk) were smoothed by using a Bayesian method (BYM model). The maps show that spatial differences can be made visible by smoothing. Data aggregation is the methodically simpler way, but means a loss of information. The atlas shows that small-scale mapping is possible while preserving the entire spatial information. The method of smoothing is complex, but useful for generating hypotheses. The spatial patterns found are complex, difficult to interpret, and require the collaboration of specialists from different professions, because of the diverse influencing factors (data collection, lifestyle factors, early detection, risk factors, etc.). The effort required to explain the methodology in a language easy to understand should not be underestimated.