Demographischer Wandel und Krebserkrankungen in der Zukunft

Background: The demographic changes in Germany lead to a modified age structure of the population towards a growing proportion of elderly people. As many diseases like cancer usually appear in higher age groups, increasing numbers of cases are expected. The quantification of this development is an important indicator of the future burden of the health system. Material and Methods: Currently available age- and sex-specific incidence rates of the most frequent cancer sites, based on populationbased cancer registries, were assigned 'ceteris paribus' to the expected populations of the years 2030, 2050 and 2060 (12th coordinated population prediction, predicted by the Federal Statistical Office). Results: The number of incident cancer cases will increase from 494,000 in 2010 to 642,000 in 2050 (+26%). There are considerable differences among the different cancer sites (-29% to +47%). Conclusions: Caused by demographic changes, sizeable higher numbers of incident cancer cases have to be expected in the future in Germany. The declining population will cause an even more strongly increasing cancer burden in the population.