Context- and bias-free probabilistic mission impact assessment

Alexander Motzek*, Ralf Möller

*Corresponding author for this work
4 Citations (Scopus)


Assessing and understanding the impact of scattered and widespread events onto a mission is a pertinacious problem. Current approaches attempting to solve mission impact assessment employ score-based algorithms leading to spurious results. We identify a fourfold problem with score-based algorithms: (1) score-based algorithms enforce deep training of experts to employed frameworks for specification (non-context-free), (2) require reference results for interpreting obtained results (non-bias-free), (3) require assessments outside of an experts’ expertise (non-local), and (4) require validation of end-results against ground truth. This paper provides a formal, mathematical model for bias- and context-free mission impact assessment. Based on a probabilistic model we reduce mission impact assessment to a well-understood mathematical problem based on definitions from local expertise and allow for a validation at data level. This is useful for areas and applications where qualitative assessments are required, such as assessments in critical infrastructures or military contexts.

Original languageEnglish
JournalComputers and Security
Pages (from-to)166-186
Number of pages21
Publication statusPublished - 01.03.2017

DFG Research Classification Scheme

  • 409-06 Information Systems, Process and Knowledge Management


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