Comparison of diagnosis-specific survival scores for patients with small-cell lung cancer irradiated for brain metastases

Diagnosis-specific survival scores including a new score developed in 157 patients with brain metastases from small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) receiving whole-brain radiotherapy (WBRT) with 30 Gy in 10 fractions (WBRT-30-SCLC) were compared. Three prognostic groups were designed based on the 6-month survival probabilities of significant or almost significant factors, (age, performance score, number of brain metastases, extra-cerebral metastasis). Six-month survival rates were 6% (6–11 points), 44% (12–14 points) and 86% (16–19 points). The WBRT-30-SCLC was compared to three disease-specific scores for brain metastasis from SCLC, the original and updated diagnosis-specific graded prognostic assessment DS-GPA classifications and the Rades-SCLC. Positive predictive values (PPVs) used to correctly predict death ≤6 months were 94% (WBRT-30-SCLC), 88% (original DS-GPA), 88% (updated DS-GPA) and 100% (Rades-SCLC). PPVs to predict survival ≥6 months were 86%, 75%, 76% and 100%. For WBRT-30-SCLC and Rades-SCLC, differences between poor and intermediate prognoses groups and between intermediate and favorable prognoses groups were significant. For both DS-GPA classifications, only the difference between poor and intermediate prognoses groups was significant. Of these disease-specific tools, Rades-SCLC appeared to be the most accurate in identifying patients dying ≤6 months and patients surviving ≥6 months after irradiation, followed by the new WBRT-30-SCLC and the DS-GPA classifications.