Initial Expectations and Confidence Affect the Formation of Novel Self—Beliefs and Their Revision

Human self-beliefs hinge on social feedback, but their formation and revision are not solely based on new information. Biases during learning, such as confirming initial expectations, can lead to inaccurate beliefs. This study uses computational modeling to explore how initial expectations about one’s own and others’ abilities and confidence in these beliefs affect processes of belief formation and belief revision in novel behavioral domains. In the first session, participants formed performance beliefs through trial-by-trial feedback. In the second session, feedback contingencies were reversed to promote a revision of beliefs. Results showed that people form and revise beliefs in a confirmatory manner, with lower initial expectations being linked to more negatively biased belief formation and revision, while growing confidence strengthened these beliefs over time. Once formed, these beliefs proved resistant to change even when faced with contradictory feedback. The findings suggest that newly formed beliefs become entrenched and resistant to new, contradictory information in a short period of time. Understanding how self-beliefs are formed, the role that confidence plays in this process, and why established beliefs are difficult to revise can inform the development of interventions aimed at promoting more adaptive learning in educational, clinical, and social contexts.