Demographische Herausforderung und Zukunft der onkologischen Versorgung

Introduction: Projections of the demand for oncologic care have to consider local demographic developments. The objective of this study was to project the future incidence of cancer in the two German federal states of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania and Schleswig-Holstein for the three most prevalent sites (breast/prostate, colon and lungs). Methods: Age and sex-specific incidence rates from the epidemiologic cancer registers of the federal states, were combined with population data of the year 2008 and population forecasts for the years 2020 and 2030 for each state administrative district (2030 for Schleswig-Holstein as a whole). Results: In 2030 the increase in the number of incident cases for all aggregated administrative districts will be higher in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania for colon (+42.3%), lung (+38.4%) and prostate cancer (+52.2%) compared to Schleswig-Holstein (+35.1%, +27.3%/ and +38,2%, respectively) and lower for breast cancer (+5.5% versus +14.8%). In 2020 the highest increase in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania will occur in the western administrative districts. In Schleswig-Holstein the lowest increase will take place in the urban municipalities. Discussion: There was less emigration from the western part of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania than from the eastern part, therefore, the higher number of people born between 1955 and 1970 will grow older in the coming years especially in the western part of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania and in the whole of Schleswig-Holstein. Projections for future changes in disease prevalence for single administrative districts can help to avoid a lack of health care services in regions with an expected high increase in such diseases.